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Ian Winer


Addiction and Recovery

Ian Winer is an investor, philosopher, humanitarian, writer and public speaker who connects people to the truth of market places and human behavior. Ian is the author of the book, Ubiquitous Relativity: My Truth is Not the Truth. A regular contributor to CNBC, Fox Business, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and Reuters, to name just a few, he is known for seeking connections through non consensus thinking and making it relatable to everyone.

The president is right: If the Fed cut rates and started QE again, the stock market would take off like a rocket ship.

I think there are a few things we should keep in mind before we do such a thing.



1) The Fed (and every other global central bank) has been wildly accommodative for 10 years. And that is an understatement. Everything from QE1 to QE (pick a #) to "Operation Twist" has driven up asset prices. The Fed already holds > $4 Trillion in assets on its balance sheet. Central Banks Globally hold > $22 Trillion.

2) If we have learned anything from this last decade of Monetary Stimulus is that Central Banks can drive up assets, but they cannot create wage growth or inflation. While the rich got richer when the stock market went up 400% and housing prices recovered from the 2009 nadir, the ordinary American got relatively poorer. Income Inequality is the worst it has ever been. And the Fed is directly responsible for that. Remember that almost the entire stock market is owned by 10-15% of the population. The other 85% of the people saw no gains when the market rallied. And while wage growth has shown some signs of life, it is still nowhere. The Fed cannot stop Amazon from cutting prices or from technology replacing American workers.

3) The Fed used to be tied to Inflation and Full Employment as its goal posts. Now it seems to be tied to the level of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But if we cut rates now when Inflation is in check and employment is full, what will they be able to do if things do go south?

Right now the economy is booming I have been told. I don't agree, but lets assume it is. Is now the time to add to the boom? In sports, if I have already clinched a playoff spot, is now the time to play my star players more? or should I let them rest? I would argue to let them rest. Similarly, if things are booming, why not save something in reserve for when they aren't?

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